U.S. Security Assurances to the Gulf States: Examining Key Scenarios

Abstract

This thesis investigates key scenarios that could trigger significant changes in US security assurances to the Gulf countries. By engaging and interviewing experts in US foreign policy towards the Gulf, this study aims to shed alight in the essence of security assurances for Gulf states, identify scenarios capable of catalyzing significant and enduring changes, and contemplate the future trajectory of US involvement in Gulf security.
Employing an interview-based qualitative approach, this research seeks to identify and analyze pivotal scenarios that might have a significant change in US security assurances to the Gulf states. It integrates insights collected from scholarly literature exploring US offshore balancing behavior and security provisions across Europe, East Asia, and the Gulf. Additionally, interviews with experts in US foreign policy specific to the Middle East offer invaluable perspectives on scenarios likely to influence US security assurances in the Gulf region.
Analysis of interview data provides a comprehensive ranking of key scenarios and offers insights into potential triggers for substantial changes in US security assurances. While no single scenario emerges as the definitive catalyst for significant change, the study highlights two plausible scenarios envisioned by US foreign policy experts: the possibility of the US engaging in conflict with a peer competitor and the potential for Gulf countries to rebalance alongside a peer competitor against US. This research contributes vital insights into the intricate dynamics of security assurances, offering a deeper understanding of potential transformations within the Gulf's geopolitical landscape.

Date of Award	2023
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Brendon Cannon (Supervisor)