UAE’s Energy System and GHG Emissions: Pathways to Achieving National Goals by 2050

Abstract

The UAE’s Energy sector is the largest contributor to its GHG emissions. Electricity generation and energy-intensive industries (EII) have the largest emissions reduction potentials. In recent years, the nation has outlined its Energy strategy 2050 to increase renewable power generation and reduce emissions. It also announced the Net-Zero by 2050 initiative in October 2021. In this light, an up-to-date GHG emissions inventory and a study of the pathways to achieving 2050 targets are essential. This study entails building an emissions inventory and future projection for energy production and selected energy-intensive industry sectors (Aluminium, Steel and Cement manufacturing). This is done through a review of available literature, and national and international reports. The structure of these sectors is modelled and simulated - using a system dynamics (SD) methodology - up to 2050. The SD model is validated to reflect the real-world state of the system using the emissions inventory and preliminary projections as reference modes. 19 mitigation policies were considered across the selected sectors, and 4 policy scenarios were simulated. The results show that by 2050 and with reference to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, implementing the Energy 2050 strategy in the power sector can result in a 63.5% emissions reduction in that sector, which translates to a 33.5% reduction overall. Further implementing all identified mitigation strategies to full utilization in EIIs yields a 94% reduction in that sector, which translates to a 78% reduction overall. Decarbonizing the Aluminium industry yields the highest emissions reductions, followed by power production, then Cement, and finally steel. In the best-case scenario, 22.1% of the BAU emissions are still released, and further decarbonization - mainly in the power sector - will be required. This is achievable given the trajectory of the UAE’s successful nuclear energy program thus far, and the prospect of utilizing CCUS even further.

Date of Award	Dec 2022
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Ali Bouabid (Supervisor)