The Impact of Sanctions on Iran’s Defense Aviation Industry with Special Reference to Unmanned Aerial System

Abstract

In this study, the implications of the international sanctions on Iran's Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAV) program were investigated by a two-part research methodology. First, was an analysis of the literature and a review of the databases kept by the US Department of Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to determine the pattern of sanctions on Iran over time. The second way of gathering data was via in-depth interviews with experts who were all knowledgeable about the subject matter and had gained their expertise and knowledge through their professional affiliation with academic institutions, think tanks, and fieldwork.
Out of the five experts approached four agreed for an interview. Although the study results indicate the inefficient nature of sanctions in hindering Iran’s UAV development program, it appears to this extent that the program might be slowed down. The primary reasons include the straightforwardness of drone parts which are also known for dual-use properties are among the main drawbacks in this effectiveness. Iran has homegrown capabilities and smart tactics for circumventing sanctions and thus provides Iran with highly effective drones that rival those of main military powers. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the pivotal role major global powers alignment plays in sanction effectiveness, highlighting vulnerabilities when non-compliance, notably by China and Russia, occurs.
Additionally, obvious theme emerges concerning the escalating global demand for Iranian UAVs, driven by competitive pricing and proven effectiveness. Iran's strategic leverage on this demand not only generates revenue but also enhances soft power and goodwill, potentially aiding it further in its quest to avoid sanctions.
The study concludes by making recommendations for future research such as but not limited to examining the reciprocal nature of Iran's assistance to Russia in supplying UAVs for the conflict in Ukraine.
Finally, the study ends by highlighting points that policymakers must consider when formulating further sanctions on Iran to increase sanction efficacy. Cases in point include but are not limited to not underestimating the significance of investments in indigenous capabilities, and fostering self-reliance and innovation.

Date of Award	2024
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Ashley Rossiter (Supervisor)