Techno-Economic Analysis of H2@Scale Production Pathways in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Abstract

The transition to Renewable and Clean Energy Systems (REACES) is pivotal for achieving the objectives outlined by the Paris Climate Agreement. The emergence of green-Hydrogen (H2) utilization is considered a promising groundbreaking initiative for the transition toward a low-carbon economy. However, currently, less than one percent of the world's H2 production is “Green”. Significant impediments such as lack of regulations, high production costs, and inadequate infrastructure persist. Referred to as "the New-Oil" in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, green-H2 presents a significant opportunity. This study investigated the production potential, technological foundations, infrastructure, scalability, challenges, and technoeconomic metrics for scaled green-H2 and Ammonia (NH3) production in the MENA region. To enhance the precision, coherence, and reliability, initially, the study developed a standardized Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) model for assessing REACES, encompassing key technical, economic, financial, and business risk-related components. This model was then employed to assess the scaled green-H2 and green-NH3 production from various renewable resources through simulation in Aspen Plus. The findings demonstrate that the MENA region contributed almost 11% of global green-H2 projects and accounted for more than half of the overall production capacity since 2015. The region has the clean H2 production potential for nearly 170 Million Tons (MT) of from Organic Municipal Solid Waste (OMSW), and 54 Tera Cubic Meter (TCM) from natural gas. The optimal Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) produced through water electrolysis was determined to be $2.09/kg, contrasting when produced from OMSW with a range of nearly $4.10-4.96/kg, contingent upon the inclusion of carbon capture and storage charges. The levelized cost of green-NH3 was found in the ranges from $0.56-0.68/kg, which is close to competitiveness. The results demonstrate a significant decrease in the levelized cost as the production volume scales up. Capital cost, operational expenditures, and installed balance of the plant were found to be the key cost drivers. The findings underscored the criticality of standardized TEA methodologies and the prevailing impact of economies of scale, thereby enhancing the capacity for informed policy formulation and investment decisions aimed at advancing green-H2 production as a tradable commodity.

Date of Award	18 Jul 2024
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Ahmad Mayyas (Supervisor)