Stochastic Analysis of Levelized Cost of Electricity for Large Scale Solar Photovoltaic Projects in the UAE

Abstract

As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is diversifying its energy sources, it is increasingly looking towards solar photovoltaic technology as a viable option. A key factor in promoting this option is the capability to forecast financial viability of solar projects. Traditionally, single point cost estimation techniques have been used to determine the values of key financial indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity. In this research, a comprehensive review of the solar technologies, markets, and policies is carried out. The fundamentals of economic evaluation of Solar PV projects are analyzed in detail. Finally, a stochastic analysis is proposed and applied to the case of UAE to better estimate the economic potential of utility scale solar projects. This research uses stochastic analysis in addition to deterministic analysis on potential UAE solar power projects to obtain a wider understanding of the variability associated with financial performance, based on the variability and uncertainty in independent input variables. The results are put in perspective through comparison with current power pricing to understand the relative economic standing of the available options.

Date of Award	2013
Original language	American English
Supervisor	TOUFIC Mezher (Supervisor)