Road to 2050: Improving Circular Economy in the UAE

Abstract

The world's municipal solid waste (MSW) is anticipated to reach 3.4 billion tons by 2050, as a result, waste-to-energy (WtE) technologies are gaining increased attention as a sustainable waste management method. A comprehensive literature review brings to light the UAE's growing waste problem, the use of circular economy principles, and the new opportunities of carbon capture and biogas upgrading technologies in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The research explores the technological, environmental, and economic feasibility of implementing new WtE technologies in the UAE, with particular focus on the Emirates Waste to Energy Company (EWEC). To do so, it employs the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) to simulate the EWEC plant operation with and without carbon capture, including detailed MSW composition data to calculate biogenic and fossil carbon content. Simulations showed that carbon capture reduces net emissions to -129.9 ktCO₂/year by capturing 89% of total emissions, which are predominantly biogenic in nature. Although this process has a relatively high levelized cost (LC) of $72.5 per ton CO₂, it is within price benchmarks suggested to meet the 1.5 °C climate target and is economically viable under supportive carbon pricing policies. For the biogas route, analysis assumes membrane separation upgrading and anaerobic digestion integration. Literature-based calculation estimates the yield at 15.9 MNm³/year biomethane and net emissions at -28.2 ktCO₂/year at a lower LC of $45.12 per ton CO₂ captured. This process is cheaper, particularly for scenarios of high CO₂ pricing or natural gas replacement but has lower emissions mitigation potential compared to CCS. The results highlight that both incineration with carbon capture and biogas upgrading are technically feasible for the EWEC plant with distinct advantages. Although CCS is more climate-friendly, biogas upgrading is economically feasible and aids energy security through the use of biomethane as a replacement for fossil natural gas. This research provides an avenue for optimizing WtE technologies in line with the UAE's Net Zero 2050 Strategy, balancing climate aspiration with economic realities.

Date of Award	2025
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Pedro Rochedo (Supervisor)