This study conducts an in-depth analysis of hydrogen’s role within the energy system of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), aiming to offer insights into its transformative potential towards sustainability and emissions reduction goals. The research begins with a thorough examination of the UAE’s energy profile and its carbon emissions statistics. Following this foundational review, the hydrogen supply chain is explored, with a focus on its application within key sectors such as industry, transportation, and power generation. Furthermore, the research evaluates the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen, considering its ability to serve as a fundamental energy carrier of the future. A green-to-green system framework is then proposed, showcasing the broad applications of hydrogen, from augmenting power generation to acting as a feedstock for industrial processes. Subsequently, the study examines classifications of energy models and established methodologies to determine the most suitable approach for hydrogen integration within the energy framework. A methodical strategy is developed to incorporate hydrogen into energy systems, utilizing both simulation and optimization techniques for this integration. Afterward, a system dynamics model is employed to provide an initial analysis of the energy system’s interaction with environmental factors, offering scenario analyses on the benefits of hydrogen within the power generation, transportation, and industrial sectors. This initial exploration of the research provides insights into the dynamics of the energy system, the role of hydrogen in carbon emissions reduction, and the broader economic and environmental impact of proposed energy transition strategies. It also gives particular attention to the transportation sector, investigating the environmental benefits of shifting from internal combustion engines to electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. Additionally, it indicates that for an environmentally sustainable energy system to emerge, the power generation, transportation, and industrial sectors must reduce their carbon intensity, with further investigation needed into their integrated hydrogen adoption. The final part of the study introduces a comprehensive linear programming optimization model tailored to inform long-term national energy and hydrogen policy, particularly considering the unique needs of arid environments like the UAE. This model seeks to facilitate the broader integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid and supports the dual use of hydrogen as both an energy storage solution and a vital feedstock for transportation and industry sectors. In practice, the model is aimed at optimizing the strategic role of hydrogen in the national energy mix. When applied to the UAE, the outcomes reveal significant economic and environmental advantages of incorporating hydrogen at scale within the national power infrastructure. The model results provide updates on the UAE’s national energy and hydrogen strategies. Historical power generation data from 2000 to 2021 is utilized, and a linear regression technique is applied to forecast future power generation capacity. The regression model forecast results are 203, 230, 258, 286, and 313 TWh/year for 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050, respectively. Future hydrogen demand targets are incorporated based on the national hydrogen strategy, setting hydrogen targets of 2.1, 3.5, 5, 7.5, and 10.1 million tons/year for the years 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050, respectively. Carbon emission constraints are imposed, with values of 62, 46, 35, 24, and 17 million tons CO2e/year for the years 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050, respectively. The model power technologies mix results show there is a need for a steady increase in wind energy deployment from 36 GW in 2030 to 80 GW in 2050. Similarly, solar energy capacity needs to increase from 98 GW in 2030 to 388 GW in 2050. Results show that the gas combined-cycle power plants need a continuous capacity reduction, from 18 GW in 2030 to a complete phase-out in 2050. Nuclear energy contributes flatly for all years with a fixed capacity of 5.6 GW. The electrolyzer capacity is projected to increase from 57 GW in 2030 to 200 GW in 2050. Similarly, fuel cell capacity is expected to grow from 29 GW in 2030 to 215 GW in 2050. The lithium-ion battery is forecasted to expand from 16 GW in 2030 to 611 GW in 2050. Hydrogen storage capacity is also forecasted to expand from 34 million m3 in 2030 to 65 million m3 in 2050. Carbon emissions are projected to decrease from 62 million tons CO2e/year in 2030 to 17 million tons CO2e/year in 2050. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is expected to increase from 0.144 $/kWh in 2030 to 0.373 $/kWh in 2050, indicating the need for governmental subsidies to meet stringent environmental regulations.
| Date of Award | 2 May 2024 |
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| Original language | American English |
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| Supervisor | TOUFIC Mezher (Supervisor) |
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