Modelling CO2 Emissions Mitigation Strategies for Existing Buildings in the UAE Using System Dynamics

Abstract

The built environment is arguably the biggest energy consumer globally, which results in the massive amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission emitted annually. Especially, existing building stocks due to the envelop inefficiency that leads to the need for higher energy intensity for operations. Therefore, introducing some effective building retrofitting technologies and energy mitigation measures can result in lower energy consumption and enhance energy efficiency. The UAE is considered the 11th highest in the world in consumption per capita, due particularly to cooling load in buildings. Accordingly, a clear strategy is critical to be recommended for existing building management and decision-makers regarding lowering primary energy load for operations and thus, decarbonization, that supports UAE energy strategy 2050. This study will focus on introducing policies to the building system, visualizing its behavior, and presenting its economic feasibility. What is the best CO2 emission mitigation strategy to propose for an existing building in the UAE? This study will answer this question by utilizing system dynamic (SD) methodology to test 6 energy conservation policies and combinations, that result in obtaining the optimal scenario with respect to energy consumption reduction, CO2 emissions mitigation, and cost-effectiveness in terms of lower payback period (PP) and profit gains from energy bills savings. SD modeling reflects the state of a system using energy and emission accumulation to predict reference mode behavior when policies are introduced, which includes setting up an air-conditioner (AC) temperature to a higher degree, lights and chiller replacement with more efficient technologies, and window, roof, wall retrofit. The results show that the optimal strategy is combining light and chiller replacement, temperature setpoint, window, and wall retrofit policies for an existing building as it yields 23% CO2 reduction, with an investment cost of 3.1 million dirhams, 10 years of PP, and 5.8 million profit gains by the end of the year 2050 due to energy savings with reference to business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of the building utilized in this study.

Date of Award	20 Dec 2023
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Toufic Mezher (Supervisor)