Modeling Dynamic Transitions in the Global Air Transportation System

  • Denes Csala

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

The air transportation system needs to change drastically if it is to transition into a sustainable state. The stakes for the needed technology-driven change – innovation – are extremely high for the lead adopters given the high cost of R&D in manufacturing and the need to change parts of the existing infrastructure and operational procedures if a significant improvement in high energy efficiency is to be achieved. We assess different transition options, using the Global Aviation Industry Dynamics Transition (GAIDT) system dynamics model of the industry that extends a previous implementation in the ability to test how such changes will cascade through the global aviation system accounting for airline and aircraft manufacturer competition across a variety of aircraft product lines. The GAIDT model exhibits advanced features of modularity, extensibility, autocalibration and a visual user interface, some considered unique in system dynamics, such as a dynamic modular structure or compatibility with other simulation modeling techniques. We conduct a quantitative strategy assessment using a composite indicator ̅ (normalized strategy value), that combines the economic and environmental benefits of different strategies. It has been found that the normalized strategy values will highly depend on the fuel prices. However, if the fuel prices continue to rise, any kind of innovation option is beneficial. When decoupled from fuel prices, it has been found that early transition options are preferred. In order to properly quantify the impact of technology innovation, its penetration and assess the full impact of the different transition options, further research is needed for which the GAIDT model can serve as basis.
Date of Award2013
Original languageAmerican English
SupervisorSgouris Sgouridis (Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Transportation engineering. | Transportation --Engineering Systems

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