Evaluation of Early Growth Indicators for Technology Forecasting

  • Hanan AlShemeili

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

Existing research efforts at the institute have led to the development of a number of growth indicators aimed at detecting technology areas. However, validating these indicators has proven to be an important problem, and one which has yet to be satisfactorily addressed. This challenge is particularly difficult since evaluating the 'success' of a technology is not a straightforward thing to do. Existing forecasting studies have focused on specific physical benchmarks, such as the maximum speed obtained by a given drive system, or the pressure generated by a pump. Such techniques are difficult to apply when dealing with a broad and interdisciplinary domain of research such as renewable energy. As such, in this thesis we will investigate an alternative approach to validating these growth indicators. The proposed methodology is based on the intrinsic properties of each indicator (as opposed to approaches which incorporate extrinsic characteristics of the technology as described above). The indicators rely on the prevalence of the technologies in term of their written publications to measure their growth. This thesis provides a set of experiments designed to measure the consistency of the indicators and validate their results.
Date of Award2011
Original languageAmerican English
SupervisorWei Lee Woon (Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Social Frediction
  • Technological Forecasting

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