Carbon and Fuel Price Effects on Modal Choice within a Global Transportation Framework

Abstract

We build a global passenger transportation model which maps the global transport streams with respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (fuel lifecycle and combustion only), passenger-kilometers traveled and monetary expenses. We include an elasticity-based mode choice mechanism that allows assessing the effect of economic, time and comfort related variables on mode choice and ultimately transport emissions. In two case studies we demonstrate the functioning of the model with and without mode choice. In Case Study I we examine the emissions savings potential from substitution of short-haul aviation through high-speed rail in the United States and globally. We find that the average travel speed of high speed trains plays a major role in determining the potential GHG emission savings and that the cumulative emission savings from substitution over 40 years are in the range of about 5 percent of the combined air and high-speed rail market emissions. In Case Study II we assess the effect of carbon and fuel price under different light-duty vehicle (LDV) technology adoption scenarios. We find that high fuel prices and carbon taxes can significantly reduce global transport GHG emissions and total passenger-kilometers traveled. Under aggressive LDV technology adaption scenarios the effect of fuel and carbon price on passenger-kilometers traveled and global transport GHG emissions decreases.

Date of Award	2011
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Sgouris Sgouridis (Supervisor)