Assessing Decarbonization Efforts in the UAE’s Energy-Intensive Industries: Barriers, Opportunities, and Pathways to Achieving Net-Zero Emissions by 2050

Abstract

The UAE is undergoing a transformative journey to achieve net-zero by 2050, setting ambitious climate goals and investing heavily in industrial decarbonization. However, the country’s energy-intensive industries (EIIs), like cement, steel, and aluminum, remain the largest contributors to national emissions, accounting for more than half of the UAE’s total industrial emissions. According to the Climate Action Tracker, the UAE’s current efforts are rated as insufficient, largely due to a high reliance on carbon capture technologies, particularly within the industry.
Reaching Net-Zero for EIIs requires a comprehensive understanding of the technologies that can enable deep industrial decarbonization. This study identifies and categorizes the key sector specific barriers to implementation across five dimensions: technological, economic, policy related, institutional, and renewable energy integration. A mixed-methods approach is employed, including industry profiling, barrier mapping, Levelized Cost of CO₂ Abatement (LCOA) analysis, qualitative risk assessment using 5×5 likelihood-impact matrices, and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Risk scores are integrated with Technology Readiness Level (TRL), Policy Readiness Level (PRL), and LCOA, with normalization ensuring a balanced evaluation.
Findings indicate that scrap-based Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, clinker substitution in cement, and renewable-powered aluminum smelting represent the most viable near-term pathways, offering high readiness, low cost, and manageable risks. Medium-term progress depends on scaling carbon capture and storage (CCS), particularly for cement and steel, though deployment remains hindered by infrastructure and regulatory limitations. In the long term, high-impact technologies such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H₂-DRI), inert anodes, and electrochemical cement hold significant abatement potential but face major cost and readiness barriers. Sectoral MCDA results suggest cement is the highest-risk sector, largely due to structural and policy bottlenecks, while aluminum benefits from high readiness and fewer systemic barriers. These findings inform a sequenced national roadmap that aligns decarbonization technologies with their appropriate timelines and support mechanisms. This thesis develops a prioritized decarbonization technology pathway and a corresponding policy recommendation timeline, providing a sequenced national roadmap that aligns technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and institutional readiness toward the UAE’s 2050 net-zero target.

Date of Award	Aug 2025
Original language	American English
Supervisor	Ahmad Mayyas (Supervisor)