Agent-Based Analysis on Regulatory Schemes for Carbon Emission Reduction in the Deregulated Texas Electricity Market

  • Joshua D. Halperin

Student thesis: Master's Thesis

Abstract

In the United States, emission regulations are enacted at a state level; individual states are allowed to define what methods they will use to mitigate their carbon emissions. The consequence of this is especially interesting in the state of Texas where legislation has created a 'deregulated' electricity market in which end-users are capable of choosing their electricity provider and subsequently the type of electricity they wish to consume (generated by fossil fuels or renewable sources). However, with any environmental regulation (those passed into law and those pending legislation) it is important to understand the cost to various stakeholders and what benefit can be expected from its implementation – both in the diffusion of technology and in the ensuing lowering of carbon dioxide emissions. In this research we build an agent-based model of the Texas electricity market and forecast the effects of tax and subsidy policy instruments on the development of renewable generation capacity at the utility level while taking into account expected adoption of rooftop PV systems by individual consumers. Utilizing these forecasts from Monte Carlo simulations, we predict carbon abatement trends and proffer updated renewable portfolio standards at various levels of likelihood in accordance with generated probability distributions.
Date of Award2011
Original languageAmerican English
SupervisorI-tsung Tsai (Supervisor)

Keywords

  • Carbon Emission
  • Texas Electricity Market

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