Unaddressed non-energy use in the chemical industry can undermine fossil fuels phase-out

Around 13% of fossil fuels globally are used for non-combustion purposes. Fossil fuel processing plants, such as petroleum refineries, exhibit interdependent material and energy system dynamics, making the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems more challenging without addressing the non-energy outputs. This study explores the future role of fossil fuels for non-energy purposes in climate-stringent scenarios with restrictions on alternative feedstock availability, focusing on the primary chemicals sector. Using a global integrated assessment model with detailed refining and primary chemicals sectors, findings across various scenarios reveal that up to 62% of total feedstock use in the chemical sector could be provided by alternative sources by 2050. This would require significant scale-up in biomass utilisation and carbon capture technologies. Annual CO₂ emissions from the chemical sector could be reduced to as low as −1Gt CO₂ by the same year if carbon storage in non-recycled and non-incinerated bioplastics is accounted for.