Towards a green power sector: Optimal EV integration and CO₂ emissions management in Pakistan

This work investigates the impact of electric vehicles (EVs) integration on the power sector of Pakistan, with the aim of minimizing the cost of electricity (COE) generation and reducing CO₂ emissions. A multiperiod mixed integer linear programming model is developed to optimize the energy mix, considering constraints such as electricity demand, CO₂ emissions, and power plant capacity. This study analyses the effect of 30%, 50%, and 70% EV penetration on newly purchased vehicles, determining their impact on cumulative COE and CO₂ emissions. The optimization results indicate that the COE generation is not adversely affected by the adoption of EVs, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions can be achieved by increasing non-fossil-based power generation. The study also explores CO₂ mitigation schemes, including fuel balancing (FB) and renewable energy reliance. While FB is found to be ineffective under the given electricity demand levels. The analysis reveals that CO₂ emissions could decrease by up to 11.9 MT with a 70% EV penetration, while maintaining renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and biomass at 20–40% of the energy mix can lead to seasonal emission reductions of up to 37.8% in summer. This work offers preliminary insights into the EV integration in Pakistan's energy sector and lays a foundation for future policy recommendations aimed at achieving a balanced energy mix and sustained emission reduction.