Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model

Jennifer Loria; Vinicius V.L. Albani; Francisco A.B. Coutinho; Dimas T. Covas; Claudio J. Struchiner; Jorge P. Zubelli; Eduardo Massad

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0285466

Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model

Jennifer Loria, Vinicius V.L. Albani, Francisco A.B. Coutinho, Dimas T. Covas, Claudio J. Struchiner, Jorge P. Zubelli, Eduardo Massad

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Abstract

In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Original language	British English
Article number	e0285466
Journal	PLoS ONE
Volume	18
Issue number	5 May
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285466
State	Published - May 2023

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10.1371/journal.pone.0285466

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abstract = "In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.",

author = "Jennifer Loria and Albani, {Vinicius V.L.} and Coutinho, {Francisco A.B.} and Covas, {Dimas T.} and Struchiner, {Claudio J.} and Zubelli, {Jorge P.} and Eduardo Massad",

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AU - Massad, Eduardo

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Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model

Abstract

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