TY - JOUR
T1 - Targeting and Mistargeting of Family Policies in High-Income Pacific Asian Societies
T2 - A Review of Financial Incentives
AU - Chen, Mengni
AU - Gietel-Basten, Stuart
AU - Yip, Paul S.F.
N1 - Funding Information:
This funding was supported by University of Hong Kong (Grant No. HKU-SPPR-7002-12), Austrian Science Fund (Grant No. Z171- G11), and Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS (Grant No. 32765354).
Funding Information:
The authors are very grateful to the comments by the reviewers. This study is supported by the Strategic Public Policy Research Funding Scheme of Research Grant Council in Hong Kong (for Yip) and the funding of Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) in Belgium (for Chen).
Funding Information:
The authors are very grateful to the comments by the reviewers. This study is supported by the Strategic Public Policy Research Funding Scheme of Research Grant Council in Hong Kong (for Yip) and the funding of Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) in Belgium (for Chen).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2020/6/1
Y1 - 2020/6/1
N2 - Very low fertility rates can be found in many high-income Pacific Asian societies, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan. Governments in these territories have already taken pronatalist policies but with only modest effects, especially when measured by overall total fertility rate. Mistargeting has been cited as a potential explanation for this impact. To explore this notion in greater depth, we first identify the potential target groups that are most influential in changing the TFR for the five societies, based on a stochastic model and fertility elasticity analyses. Then we examine the targeting of current pronatalist policies, especially financial incentives and marriage policies. The analyses show that marriage rates, especially among women aged 25–29 are the most influential factor in shaping contemporary TFRs. Third and higher order births are insignificant in changing the fertility trajectories for all the five places. Besides, there are also territory-specific patterns. For Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, first births (especially among women aged 30–34) are the second most influential factor; for South Korea, second births (especially among women aged 30–34) actually play a very important role, next only to marriage; for Japan, first- and second births are much less influential while marriage is an overwhelmingly essential factor of fertility. Furthermore, the review of financial incentives in these places reveals the mismatch between the targeting suggested by our analysis and the targeting implied by current policy measures. The mistargeting, piecemeal measures and the low level of financial support may be partly responsible for the ineffectiveness of the governmental action.
AB - Very low fertility rates can be found in many high-income Pacific Asian societies, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan. Governments in these territories have already taken pronatalist policies but with only modest effects, especially when measured by overall total fertility rate. Mistargeting has been cited as a potential explanation for this impact. To explore this notion in greater depth, we first identify the potential target groups that are most influential in changing the TFR for the five societies, based on a stochastic model and fertility elasticity analyses. Then we examine the targeting of current pronatalist policies, especially financial incentives and marriage policies. The analyses show that marriage rates, especially among women aged 25–29 are the most influential factor in shaping contemporary TFRs. Third and higher order births are insignificant in changing the fertility trajectories for all the five places. Besides, there are also territory-specific patterns. For Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, first births (especially among women aged 30–34) are the second most influential factor; for South Korea, second births (especially among women aged 30–34) actually play a very important role, next only to marriage; for Japan, first- and second births are much less influential while marriage is an overwhelmingly essential factor of fertility. Furthermore, the review of financial incentives in these places reveals the mismatch between the targeting suggested by our analysis and the targeting implied by current policy measures. The mistargeting, piecemeal measures and the low level of financial support may be partly responsible for the ineffectiveness of the governmental action.
KW - Elasticity
KW - Hong Kong
KW - Japan
KW - Pronatalist measures
KW - Singapore
KW - South Korea
KW - Taiwan
KW - Total fertility rate
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85070858609&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11113-019-09539-w
DO - 10.1007/s11113-019-09539-w
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85070858609
SN - 0167-5923
VL - 39
SP - 389
EP - 413
JO - Population Research and Policy Review
JF - Population Research and Policy Review
IS - 3
ER -