Sustainability of basin level development under a changing climate

Ibrahim Alameddine, Abbas Fayyad, Majdi Abou Najm, Mutasem El-Fadel

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    11 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    The potential impacts of projected future climate change scenarios on the hydrologic response of a water-stressed Mediterranean river basin (Upper Litani River Basin in Lebanon) are quantified and assessed using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. Projected basin-level changes in water availability are then compared to multi-sector demands estimated under six basin-level development scenarios. The sustainability under these scenarios and the resilience of the system in the face of the projected climatic changes are then assessed in terms of a water resources index, demand reliability, demand satisfaction index, demand reliability index and the average duration of failure. The results reveal that the basin is expected to experience significant alteration in its hydrologic cycle and that current plans envisioning an increase in irrigated areas within the basin, is non-sustainable and will lead to a highly water stressed system. A conservative basin-level plan that integrates both supply- and demand-side measures is proposed in an effort to achieve a more sustainable system.

    Original languageBritish English
    Pages (from-to)394-405
    Number of pages12
    JournalInternational Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning
    Volume13
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2018

    Keywords

    • Climate Change
    • Water Stress Indices
    • Watershed Management
    • WEAP

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