TY - JOUR
T1 - Superspreading in early transmissions of COVID-19 in Indonesia
AU - Hasan, Agus
AU - Susanto, Hadi
AU - Kasim, Muhammad Firmansyah
AU - Nuraini, Nuning
AU - Lestari, Bony
AU - Triany, Dessy
AU - Widyastuti, Widyastuti
N1 - Funding Information:
We would like to thank Public Health Office of Jakarta Province, Communication, Information and Statistic Office of Jakarta Province, Jakarta Smart City Unit, Human Settlements and Spatial Planning Office of Jakarta Province, Public Health Offices of Batam, and Depok Task Force for COVID-19 Control for providing the data, feedback, and discussions. This work was supported by National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), project number 133/FI/P-KCOVID-19 2B3/IX/2020, 835/IT1 B07/KS.00.00/2020.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number R and the overdispersion parameter K at two regions in Indonesia: Jakarta–Depok and Batam. The method to estimate R is based on a sequential Bayesian method, while the parameter K is estimated by fitting the secondary case data with a negative binomial distribution. Based on the first 1288 confirmed cases collected from both regions, we find a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission. The basic reproduction number R is estimated at 6.79 and 2.47, while the overdispersion parameter K of a negative-binomial distribution is estimated at 0.06 and 0.2 for Jakarta–Depok and Batam, respectively. This suggests that superspreading events played a key role in the early stage of the outbreak, i.e., a small number of infected individuals are responsible for large numbers of COVID-19 transmission. This finding can be used to determine effective public measures, such as rapid isolation and identification, which are critical since delay of diagnosis is the most common cause of superspreading events.
AB - This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number R and the overdispersion parameter K at two regions in Indonesia: Jakarta–Depok and Batam. The method to estimate R is based on a sequential Bayesian method, while the parameter K is estimated by fitting the secondary case data with a negative binomial distribution. Based on the first 1288 confirmed cases collected from both regions, we find a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission. The basic reproduction number R is estimated at 6.79 and 2.47, while the overdispersion parameter K of a negative-binomial distribution is estimated at 0.06 and 0.2 for Jakarta–Depok and Batam, respectively. This suggests that superspreading events played a key role in the early stage of the outbreak, i.e., a small number of infected individuals are responsible for large numbers of COVID-19 transmission. This finding can be used to determine effective public measures, such as rapid isolation and identification, which are critical since delay of diagnosis is the most common cause of superspreading events.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85098262707
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-020-79352-5
DO - 10.1038/s41598-020-79352-5
M3 - Article
C2 - 33372191
AN - SCOPUS:85098262707
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 10
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 22386
ER -
