Sand-production prediction: A new set of criteria for modeling based on large-scale transient experiments and numerical investigation

This paper introduces a predictive tool that forecasts the drawdown associated with the onset of sanding as well as it predicts the sanding rate in real time. Experimental data on hollow cylinder samples (HCS) are used to support the validity of the numerical model. Experiments on hollow-cylinder synthetic- sandstone specimens were conducted, involving real-time sand-production measurement under various conditions. A numerical approach was used for simulating the experimental results. The material behavior was simulated using an elastoplastic stress-strain relationship. The model simulated the interaction between fluid flow and mechanical deformation of the medium in predicting sand production. The model simulated strain softening of the material accompanied with shear-bands formation as well as tensile failure. In the post-disaggregation phase, additional features were considered, including allowing for the removal of the disaggregated elements that have satisfied the sanding criteria and, consequently, making the necessary adjustments to the size and properties of the domain under consideration. The model can be used for time-dependent analysis of wellbore stability as it undergoes disaggregation and sand production induced by depletion, drawdown, and water cut. Such numerical tools can be used in designing the completion by identifying the critical operational conditions associated with severe sanding over the lifetime of the wellbore. The model showed a reasonable agreement with experimental results in terms of rock deformation and sanding rate. Further validation of the model against experimental and field data is necessary for its potential field applications.