TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimal vaccine roll-out strategies including social distancing for pandemics
AU - Spiliotis, Konstantinos
AU - Koutsoumaris, Constantinos Chr
AU - Reppas, Andreas I.
AU - Papaxenopoulou, Lito A.
AU - Starke, Jens
AU - Hatzikirou, Haralampos
N1 - Funding Information:
K.S. and J.S. thank the DFG for support through the Collaborative Research Center CRC 1270 - Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft ( DFG , German Research Foundation ) - SFB 1270/2 - 299150580. H.H. has received funding from the Bundesministeriums für Bildung, und Forschung ( BMBF ) under grant agreement No. 031L0237C (MiEDGE project/ERACOSYSMED). Moreover, H.H. would like to acknowledge the support of the Volkswagenstiftung for “Life?” initiative (96732). Finally, H.H. acknowledges the support of the FSU grant 2021-2023 grant from Khalifa University .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)
PY - 2022/7/15
Y1 - 2022/7/15
N2 - Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), principally social distancing, in combination with effective vaccines, aspire to develop a protective immunity shield against pandemics and particularly against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, an agent-based network model with small-world topology is employed to find optimal policies against pandemics, including social distancing and vaccination strategies. The agents’ states are characterized by a variation of the SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered). To explore optimal policies, an equation-free method is proposed to solve the inverse problem of calibrating an agent's infection rate with respect to the vaccination efficacy. The results show that prioritizing the first vaccine dose in combination with mild social restrictions, is sufficient to control the pandemic, with respect to the number of deaths. Moreover, for the same mild number of social contacts, we find an optimal vaccination ratio of 0.85 between older people of ages >65 compared to younger ones.
AB - Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), principally social distancing, in combination with effective vaccines, aspire to develop a protective immunity shield against pandemics and particularly against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, an agent-based network model with small-world topology is employed to find optimal policies against pandemics, including social distancing and vaccination strategies. The agents’ states are characterized by a variation of the SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered). To explore optimal policies, an equation-free method is proposed to solve the inverse problem of calibrating an agent's infection rate with respect to the vaccination efficacy. The results show that prioritizing the first vaccine dose in combination with mild social restrictions, is sufficient to control the pandemic, with respect to the number of deaths. Moreover, for the same mild number of social contacts, we find an optimal vaccination ratio of 0.85 between older people of ages >65 compared to younger ones.
KW - Health sciences
KW - Public health
KW - Virology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132968906&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104575
DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104575
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85132968906
SN - 2589-0042
VL - 25
JO - iScience
JF - iScience
IS - 7
M1 - 104575
ER -
