@article{e4943cb72daf4d0a93fd6c7296c429e0,
title = "Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: The recursive and stochastic nature of transmission",
abstract = "We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of S{\~a}o Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data.",
keywords = "COVID-19, Epidemiological Models, Forecasting, Model calibration, Nowcasting",
author = "Albani, {V. V.L.} and Albani, {R. A.S.} and E. Massad and Zubelli, {J. P.}",
note = "Funding Information: V.V.L.A. acknowledges the financial support from Funda{\c c}{\~a}o Butantan and Funda{\c c}{\~a}o de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa e Inova{\c c}{\~a}o do Estado de Santa Catarina through the grant nos. 01/2020 and 00002847/2021, respectively. R.A.S.A. acknowledges the financial support from Funda{\c c}{\~a}o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) through the grant nos. E-26/202.932/2019 and E-26/202.933/2019. E.M. acknowledges the financial support from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient{\'i}fico e Tecnol{\'o}gico (CNPq) and Funda{\c c}{\~a}o Butantan through the grant nos. 305544/2011-0 and 01/2020, respectively. J.P.Z. acknowledges the financial support from Khalifa University, CNPq and Funda{\c c}{\~a}o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro through the grant nos. FSU-2020-09, 307873/2013-7 and E-26/202.927/2017, respectively. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors.",
year = "2022",
month = aug,
day = "24",
doi = "10.1098/rsos.220489",
language = "British English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Royal Society Open Science",
issn = "2054-5703",
publisher = "The Royal Society",
number = "8",
}
