@article{7c777f613f1c4538902e6f5e43733856,
title = "Nonparametric spatiotemporal analysis of violent crime. A case study in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area",
abstract = "This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern of gunfire reports collected by the collaborative mobile app Fogo Cruzado in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area (Brazil). We apply nonparametric first and second-order inference tools to characterize gunfire behavior, and test whether gunfire patterns meet the assumptions of crime prediction models, such as kernel hotspot maps or self-exciting point process. The kernel intensity estimator describes the spatial distribution of gunfire and identifies chronic hotspots. The nonparametric test for comparison of first-order intensities found differences between gunfires with and without fatalities or police presence. The recently developed log-ratio based first-order separability test found that the spatial distribution of gunfire, fatalities and police presence varied over time. Finally, spatiotemporal inhomogeneous K-tests detected clustering between gunfire events, fatalities and police presence. These results suggest that a self-exciting point process with nonseparable background component is an acceptable model for future development of a suitable approach to forecast gunfire hotspots in Rio de Janeiro.",
keywords = "First-order intensity, Fogo cruzado, Gunfire, Inhomogeneous K-function, Kernel smoothing, Separability test",
author = "I. Fuentes-Santos and W. Gonz{\'a}lez-Manteiga and Zubelli, \{J. P.\}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Mrs. Cecilia Oliveira for providing the database and for a number of highly clarifying discussions. We thank Eng. Luiz Claudio Dantas (LAMCA) for technical support with the treatment of the data as well as extensive help with auxiliary Rio de Janeiro geo-referenced information. We also acknowledge the three anonymous Reviewers and the Editor for their valuable comments. This work has been conducted during the visits of Prof. Gonz{\'a}lez-Manteiga to the IMPA from March to May 2019, and the visit of Prof. Zubelli to the University of Santiago de Compostela in October 2018. Dr. Fuentes-Santos and Prof. Gonz{\'a}lez-Manteiga have been funded by project MTM2016-76969-P ( AEI/FEDER, UE, Spain ), Prof. Zubelli has been supported by the CNPq, Brazil under grant 307873 and by FAPERJ, Brazil through the program Cientistas do Nosso Estado. Funding Information: We thank Mrs. Cecilia Oliveira for providing the database and for a number of highly clarifying discussions. We thank Eng. Luiz Claudio Dantas (LAMCA) for technical support with the treatment of the data as well as extensive help with auxiliary Rio de Janeiro geo-referenced information. We also acknowledge the three anonymous Reviewers and the Editor for their valuable comments. This work has been conducted during the visits of Prof. Gonz?lez-Manteiga to the IMPA from March to May 2019, and the visit of Prof. Zubelli to the University of Santiago de Compostela in October 2018. Dr. Fuentes-Santos and Prof. Gonz?lez-Manteiga have been funded by project MTM2016-76969-P (AEI/FEDER, UE, Spain), Prof. Zubelli has been supported by the CNPq, Brazil under grant 307873 and by FAPERJ, Brazil through the program Cientistas do Nosso Estado. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Elsevier B.V.",
year = "2021",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100431",
language = "British English",
volume = "42",
journal = "Spatial Statistics",
issn = "2211-6753",
publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",
}
