TY - JOUR
T1 - Nexus between drivers of COVID-19 and country risks
AU - Qazi, Abroon
AU - Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/2
Y1 - 2023/2
N2 - COVID-19 has disrupted all spheres of life, including country risk regarding the exposure of economies to multi-dimensional risk drivers. However, it remains unexplored how COVID-19 has impacted different drivers of country risk in a probabilistic network setting. This paper uses two datasets on country-level COVID-19 and country risks to explore dependencies among associated drivers using a Bayesian Belief Network model. The drivers of COVID-19 risk, considered in this paper, are hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, whereas country risk drivers are economic, financing, political, business environment and commercial risks. The results show that business environment risk is significantly influenced by COVID-19 risk, whereas commercial risk (demand disruptions) is the least important factor driving COVID-19 and country risks. Further, country risk is mainly influenced by financing, political and economic risks. The contribution of this study is to explore the impact of various drivers associated with the country-level COVID-19 and country risks in a unified probabilistic network setting, which can help policy-makers prioritize drivers for managing the two risks.
AB - COVID-19 has disrupted all spheres of life, including country risk regarding the exposure of economies to multi-dimensional risk drivers. However, it remains unexplored how COVID-19 has impacted different drivers of country risk in a probabilistic network setting. This paper uses two datasets on country-level COVID-19 and country risks to explore dependencies among associated drivers using a Bayesian Belief Network model. The drivers of COVID-19 risk, considered in this paper, are hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, whereas country risk drivers are economic, financing, political, business environment and commercial risks. The results show that business environment risk is significantly influenced by COVID-19 risk, whereas commercial risk (demand disruptions) is the least important factor driving COVID-19 and country risks. Further, country risk is mainly influenced by financing, political and economic risks. The contribution of this study is to explore the impact of various drivers associated with the country-level COVID-19 and country risks in a unified probabilistic network setting, which can help policy-makers prioritize drivers for managing the two risks.
KW - Bayesian Belief Network
KW - Business environment risk
KW - Commercial risk
KW - Country risk
KW - COVID-19 risk
KW - Vulnerability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125490548&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101276
DO - 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101276
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85125490548
SN - 0038-0121
VL - 85
JO - Socio-Economic Planning Sciences
JF - Socio-Economic Planning Sciences
M1 - 101276
ER -