TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling and global stability analysis of COVID-19 dynamics with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis
AU - Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis
AU - Gebremeskel, Abadi Abay
AU - Melese, Zinabu Teka
AU - Al-arydah, Mo'tassem
AU - Gebremichael, Asdenaki Aklilu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s)
PY - 2024/9
Y1 - 2024/9
N2 - In addressing the global challenges posed by COVID-19, this study introduces a mathematical model aimed at investigating the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and forwarding strategies for controlling it. By employing Lyapunov functions, we perform a thorough stability analysis of both disease-free and endemic equilibria. We calibrated the model using daily COVID-19 data from early 2022 in Ethiopia, after vaccination initiation. A global sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model. In addition, we extended the model to address optimal control by incorporating vaccination, public health education, and treatment. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of individual control measures and reveal that vaccination, public health educational campaign and treatment is the most cost-effective method for mitigating COVID-19 spread.
AB - In addressing the global challenges posed by COVID-19, this study introduces a mathematical model aimed at investigating the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and forwarding strategies for controlling it. By employing Lyapunov functions, we perform a thorough stability analysis of both disease-free and endemic equilibria. We calibrated the model using daily COVID-19 data from early 2022 in Ethiopia, after vaccination initiation. A global sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model. In addition, we extended the model to address optimal control by incorporating vaccination, public health education, and treatment. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of individual control measures and reveal that vaccination, public health educational campaign and treatment is the most cost-effective method for mitigating COVID-19 spread.
KW - Cost-effectiveness analysis
KW - COVID-19
KW - Global stability
KW - Mathematical model
KW - Model fitting
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85200225863&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.padiff.2024.100843
DO - 10.1016/j.padiff.2024.100843
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85200225863
SN - 2666-8181
VL - 11
JO - Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics
JF - Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics
M1 - 100843
ER -
