Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020

Mauricio Patón; Farida Al-Hosani; Anderson E. Stanciole; Bashir Aden; Andrey Timoshkin; Amrit Sadani; Omar Najim; Cybill A. Cherian; Juan Manuel Acuna; Jorge Rodríguez

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.003

Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020

Mauricio Patón, Farida Al-Hosani, Anderson E. Stanciole, Bashir Aden, Andrey Timoshkin, Amrit Sadani, Omar Najim, Cybill A. Cherian, Juan Manuel Acuna, Jorge Rodríguez

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities. These results indicate that the prevention of infected arrivals should take all precedence priority to mitigate the impact of international visitors with their vaccination status being of less relevance.

Original language	British English
Pages (from-to)	571-579
Number of pages	9
Journal	Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume	7
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.003
State	Published - Sep 2022

Keywords

COVID-19 infections
Infectious diseases
International travel

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.003

Cite this

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title = "Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020",

abstract = "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities. These results indicate that the prevention of infected arrivals should take all precedence priority to mitigate the impact of international visitors with their vaccination status being of less relevance.",

keywords = "COVID-19 infections, Infectious diseases, International travel",

author = "Mauricio Pat{\'o}n and Farida Al-Hosani and Stanciole, {Anderson E.} and Bashir Aden and Andrey Timoshkin and Amrit Sadani and Omar Najim and Cherian, {Cybill A.} and Acuna, {Juan Manuel} and Jorge Rodr{\'i}guez",

note = "Funding Information: The Department of Health of Abu Dhabi (Grant 8434000414 ) and the Research and Data Intelligence Support Center (RDISC) , Khalifa University for the funding and support provided. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

year = "2022",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.003",

language = "British English",

volume = "7",

pages = "571--579",

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AU - Patón, Mauricio

AU - Al-Hosani, Farida

AU - Stanciole, Anderson E.

AU - Aden, Bashir

AU - Timoshkin, Andrey

AU - Sadani, Amrit

AU - Najim, Omar

AU - Cherian, Cybill A.

AU - Acuna, Juan Manuel

AU - Rodríguez, Jorge

N1 - Funding Information: The Department of Health of Abu Dhabi (Grant 8434000414 ) and the Research and Data Intelligence Support Center (RDISC) , Khalifa University for the funding and support provided. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

PY - 2022/9

Y1 - 2022/9

N2 - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities. These results indicate that the prevention of infected arrivals should take all precedence priority to mitigate the impact of international visitors with their vaccination status being of less relevance.

AB - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities. These results indicate that the prevention of infected arrivals should take all precedence priority to mitigate the impact of international visitors with their vaccination status being of less relevance.

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JO - Infectious Disease Modelling

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ER -

Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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