Mathematical models for assessing vaccination scenarios in several provinces in Indonesia

N. Nuraini, K. K. Sukandar, P. Hadisoemarto, H. Susanto, A. I. Hasan, N. Sumarti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations


To mitigate casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aims at assessing the optimal vaccination scenarios, considering several existing healthcare conditions and assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models include an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally allows for different treatments among different age groups of the population. The simulation results show that the timing and period of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give a significant impact on the total number of casualties.

Original languageBritish English
Pages (from-to)1236-1258
Number of pages23
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
StatePublished - Jan 2021


  • Age groups
  • COVID-19
  • Healthcare capacity
  • SIQRD model
  • Vaccination strategy


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