TY - GEN
T1 - Load forecasting in India at distribution transformer considering economic dynamics
AU - Padmanabh, Kumar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IEEE.
PY - 2016/11/2
Y1 - 2016/11/2
N2 - The end consumers of Smart Grid have NO say in the ecosystem of electricity Grid. The price of electricity and infrastructure of grid have been solely governed by utility companies and government entities. One of the objectives of the smart grid is to bring consumer on board using IoT technologies. Peak demand is a major concern for government and utility. Since different neighborhood would have different consumption pattern and hence load forecasting model at utility level would not predict load at all neighborhood. Socio-economic activities of consumers of a particular neighborhood are coherent. Existing research on this topic considers uniform distribution of assets and uniformity in appliances and pattern of consumption hence they are not good enough for Indian condition. The behavioral pattern of user, other economic activities and different aspect of the weather affect the consumption. In this paper we analyzed the effect of socioeconomic dynamics on demand, developed forecasting mechanism and presented the results. This study reveals that the peak demand is actually growing exponentially. Moreover a unique mechanism of forecasting is presented in this paper which is a two steps process-(i) initially a template pattern of consumption is created using parametric estimation, (ii) then total consumption of the day is created using machine learning technique and (ii) finally total consumption is redistributed to deduce time of the day consumption.
AB - The end consumers of Smart Grid have NO say in the ecosystem of electricity Grid. The price of electricity and infrastructure of grid have been solely governed by utility companies and government entities. One of the objectives of the smart grid is to bring consumer on board using IoT technologies. Peak demand is a major concern for government and utility. Since different neighborhood would have different consumption pattern and hence load forecasting model at utility level would not predict load at all neighborhood. Socio-economic activities of consumers of a particular neighborhood are coherent. Existing research on this topic considers uniform distribution of assets and uniformity in appliances and pattern of consumption hence they are not good enough for Indian condition. The behavioral pattern of user, other economic activities and different aspect of the weather affect the consumption. In this paper we analyzed the effect of socioeconomic dynamics on demand, developed forecasting mechanism and presented the results. This study reveals that the peak demand is actually growing exponentially. Moreover a unique mechanism of forecasting is presented in this paper which is a two steps process-(i) initially a template pattern of consumption is created using parametric estimation, (ii) then total consumption of the day is created using machine learning technique and (ii) finally total consumption is redistributed to deduce time of the day consumption.
KW - Demand Response
KW - DR Event
KW - Forecasting
KW - Gaussian Mixture Model
KW - Smart Grid
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85007336417&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ICACCI.2016.7732081
DO - 10.1109/ICACCI.2016.7732081
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85007336417
T3 - 2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016
SP - 417
EP - 423
BT - 2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016
A2 - Rodrigues, Joel J. P. C.
A2 - Siarry, Patrick
A2 - Perez, Gregorio Martinez
A2 - Tomar, Raghuvir
A2 - Pathan, Al-Sakib Khan
A2 - Mehta, Sameep
A2 - Thampi, Sabu M.
A2 - Berretti, Stefano
A2 - Gorthi, Ravi Prakash
A2 - Pathan, Al-Sakib Khan
A2 - Wu, Jinsong
A2 - Li, Jie
A2 - Jain, Vivek
A2 - Rodrigues, Joel J. P. C.
A2 - Atiquzzaman, Mohammed
A2 - Rodrigues, Joel J. P. C.
A2 - Bedi, Punam
A2 - Kammoun, Mohamed Habib
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 5th International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016
Y2 - 21 September 2016 through 24 September 2016
ER -