Load forecasting in India at distribution transformer considering economic dynamics

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The end consumers of Smart Grid have NO say in the ecosystem of electricity Grid. The price of electricity and infrastructure of grid have been solely governed by utility companies and government entities. One of the objectives of the smart grid is to bring consumer on board using IoT technologies. Peak demand is a major concern for government and utility. Since different neighborhood would have different consumption pattern and hence load forecasting model at utility level would not predict load at all neighborhood. Socio-economic activities of consumers of a particular neighborhood are coherent. Existing research on this topic considers uniform distribution of assets and uniformity in appliances and pattern of consumption hence they are not good enough for Indian condition. The behavioral pattern of user, other economic activities and different aspect of the weather affect the consumption. In this paper we analyzed the effect of socioeconomic dynamics on demand, developed forecasting mechanism and presented the results. This study reveals that the peak demand is actually growing exponentially. Moreover a unique mechanism of forecasting is presented in this paper which is a two steps process-(i) initially a template pattern of consumption is created using parametric estimation, (ii) then total consumption of the day is created using machine learning technique and (ii) finally total consumption is redistributed to deduce time of the day consumption.

Original languageBritish English
Title of host publication2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016
EditorsJoel J. P. C. Rodrigues, Patrick Siarry, Gregorio Martinez Perez, Raghuvir Tomar, Al-Sakib Khan Pathan, Sameep Mehta, Sabu M. Thampi, Stefano Berretti, Ravi Prakash Gorthi, Al-Sakib Khan Pathan, Jinsong Wu, Jie Li, Vivek Jain, Joel J. P. C. Rodrigues, Mohammed Atiquzzaman, Joel J. P. C. Rodrigues, Punam Bedi, Mohamed Habib Kammoun
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages417-423
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781509020287
DOIs
StatePublished - 2 Nov 2016
Event5th International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016 - Jaipur, India
Duration: 21 Sep 201624 Sep 2016

Publication series

Name2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016

Conference

Conference5th International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics, ICACCI 2016
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityJaipur
Period21/09/1624/09/16

Keywords

  • Demand Response
  • DR Event
  • Forecasting
  • Gaussian Mixture Model
  • Smart Grid

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