Initial and repeat purchase logit model for multi-generation technological product markets

Namwoon Kim, Rajendra K. Srivastava, Jin K. Han

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review


    Most new product adoption models have focused on single-generation products. Only recently have researchers begun to focus on the importance of analyzing the consumers' purchase demand in multi-generation products. This paper proposes a model that incorporates both initial and repeat purchases, and allows for leap-flogging behavior in multi-generation technological product markets. Whereas most new product adoption models are based on aggregate market sales, the proposed model is estimated and validated on individual purchase data. Within a logistical modeling framework, our model combines purchase incidence (buy/not buy) component and brand (or `generation') choice components for each time period. These model components allow for individual heterogeneity. Purchase probabilities for buyers are captured as a function of purchase history, buyer expectations of future generations, and preferences of the currently available options. The proposed model is quite parsimonious. It requires relatively simple data for estimation. It is empirically tested using individual-level purchase data from an illustrative pilot study in the multi-generation personal computer market. The model fits and explains the individual purchase behavior reasonably well.

    Original languageBritish English
    Pages (from-to)6
    Number of pages1
    JournalProceedings of the Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
    StatePublished - 1999
    EventProceedings of the 1999 32nd Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS-32 - Maui, HI, USA
    Duration: 5 Jan 19998 Jan 1999


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