How representative is SDG7 of energy poverty in politically unstable landscapes? Guiding measurement and monitoring from perceptions to realities

The pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) has gained global prominence amid growing concerns over energy poverty (EP), a challenge further exacerbated during periods of conflict. This study hypothesizes the prevailing narrow definitions of SDG7 reflect only a partial view of energy systems, risking overly optimistic assessments particularly in conflict settings. These dynamics are examined in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region characterized by a history of protracted and ongoing conflict. A data-driven comparative analysis of 26 countries in the MENA was conducted to discern national trends in SDG7 indicators (positive, neutral, or negative) while factoring in political rank (stable or unstable), development status (developed or developing), and income level (low, middle or high). Results reveal predominantly positive SDG7 trends across the region including among fifteen politically unstable, developing, and low-to middle-income countries. Observed progress does not necessarily translate into improved outcomes for the energy-poor who remain disproportionately affected by pre-existing inequalities. We attribute misleading perceptions of progress in SDG7 to concealed methodological root causes that mask the true scale of EP realities. Accordingly, a novel energy policy taxonomy was proposed to advance the measurement and monitoring of energy system performance into better capturing eighteen emerging energy development dimensions influencing EP considering environmental, social, economic, and political criteria. Application of the taxonomy demonstrates why relying on SDG7 indicators alone may create a false sense of achievement for some countries. Moving forward, this framework can guide indicator formulation for the post-2030 agenda of new global goals to inform targeted evidence-based policy planning towards accelerating EP alleviation.