Extending the SVM integration with case based restarting GA to predict solar flare

Yoshihiko Kubota, Setsuo Tsuruta, Takayuki Muranushi, Yuko Hada-Muranushi, Rainer Knauf, Yoshitaka Sakurai, Ernesto Damiani

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Human life can be seriously affected by unusual high solar flare. It causes serious problems such as destroying satellites, damaging electric power plants, etc. Predicting solar flare peaks is indispensable. Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to predict the solar flare intensity based on data of the past. However, such prediction is an extremely difficult imbalanced classification problem causing a very large scale combinatorial problem. To overcome this, a local optimizer such as SVM was cooperatively or synergistically integrated with a case base and GA. This extension was called Case Based Genetic Algorithm with Local Optimizer (CBGALO). This synergetic technology outperformed around 10% over SVM only. However, GA is known for a tendency to fall into stagnation or local optima without improving. This paper presents a further extended strategy which introduces GA restarting with various operations such as mutation rate etc. especially with various but high quality cases used as the initial population at each restart. This highly synergetic technology is called CBRSGALO (Case Based integration of ReStart GA with Local Optimizer). Experimental evaluation showed that CBRSGALO outperformed around 20% over just a local optimizer such as SVM.

Original languageBritish English
Title of host publication2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC 2017
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages1994-1999
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781538616451
DOIs
StatePublished - 27 Nov 2017
Event2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC 2017 - Banff, Canada
Duration: 5 Oct 20178 Oct 2017

Publication series

Name2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC 2017
Volume2017-January

Conference

Conference2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC 2017
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityBanff
Period5/10/178/10/17

Keywords

  • Case Base
  • Genetic Algorithms
  • Restart
  • Solar flare forcast
  • Support Vector Machine

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