Excess electricity and power-to-gas storage potential in the future renewable-based power generation sector in the United Arab Emirates

Future power generation scenarios for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that emphasize solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage are analyzed at PV:CSP generation ratios of 1:1 to 4:1, and up to 50% renewable share. Such scenarios enable up to 24–38% reduction in primary fuel consumption at 30–50% renewable share, respectively, relative to the base case scenario (i.e., business-as-usual), with accompanying reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of up to 34–54%, respectively. In parallel, over the same range of renewable shares, excess electricity is generated in the range of 1–13 TWh (0.4–5% of annual demand) and 3–25 TWh (1–10%) annually, at PV:CSP ratios of 1:1 and 4:1, respectively. Monthly excess electricity maxima and minima occur in winter and summer, respectively. At 40% renewable electricity share, the PV:CSP 4:1 scenario would lead to annual power generation costs, inclusive of power-to-gas (PtG), approximately 11% higher than for the base case scenario, and 13% lower than for the PV:CSP 1:1 scenario. At an electricity tariff of 0.05 USD/kWh and 50% capacity utilization, the levelized costs of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG) are estimated at 101 USD/MWh_th and 127 USD/MWh_th, respectively.