Electric Load Probability Density Estimation using Root-Transformed Local Linear Regression

Begad B. Elhouty, Samuel F. Feng, Tarek H.M. El-Fouly, Bashar Zahawi

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

    Abstract

    Probability density estimation of stochastic electric load is of importance nowadays in power system operations and urban planning due to the uncertainties in network demand that affects the operating states of power systems. This in turn requires accurate and reliable methods to estimate network loads, especially in distribution networks. This paper proposes employing the root-unroot method in combination with local linear regression for estimating electric load probability density. Using measured load data obtained for a range of commercial enterprises, the performance of the proposed model is compared with two kernel density estimation models and two traditional parametric models (Gaussian and Gamma) and is assessed using a variety of error metrics and statistical tests. Results confirm the accuracy of the nonparametric models over the parametric models with the root transform model performing the best across all error metrics and K-S goodness-of-fit test.

    Original languageBritish English
    Title of host publication2023 IEEE PES Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Middle East, ISGT Middle East 2023 - Proceedings
    PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
    ISBN (Electronic)9781665465434
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2023
    Event2023 IEEE PES Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Middle East, ISGT Middle East 2023 - Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
    Duration: 12 Mar 202315 Mar 2023

    Publication series

    Name2023 IEEE PES Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Middle East, ISGT Middle East 2023 - Proceedings

    Conference

    Conference2023 IEEE PES Conference on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Middle East, ISGT Middle East 2023
    Country/TerritoryUnited Arab Emirates
    CityAbu Dhabi
    Period12/03/2315/03/23

    Keywords

    • Kernel density estimwtion
    • load distribution models
    • nonparametric regression
    • probability density estimation

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