Drivers and Trends of Summertime Convection Over the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula

Summertime convection in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula is examined using satellite observations, ERA-5 reanalysis fields, and climate change projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Observations highlight peak convection during July and August driven by intense surface heating, moisture convergence, and sea-breeze dynamics. A k-means cluster analysis revealed the Madden-Julian Oscillation, breaks in the South Asian summer monsoon, and a decaying Arabian heat low as the primary atmospheric processes governing convective events. Observed trends indicate a significant increase (∼1.42 convective days per year) from 2000 to 2024 in convective events, consistent with regional warming and enhanced boundary layer instability. Climate change projections confirm this positive trend for 2015–2100, with SSP5–8.5 indicating increases by 0.038 days per year. These findings have significant implications for water management and flash-flood risk mitigation strategies across this arid and climatologically sensitive region.