Determinants of Farmers’ Decision-Making Processes under Socio-Political Stressors exacerbated by Water Scarcity and Climate Change Adaptation

The sustainability of agriculture is increasingly challenged particularly in the context of socio-political stressors exacerbated by water scarcity and climate change, where it can lead to an unbalance in food security and landscape conservation if not well protected. The reversibility of these outcomes relies on the understanding of farmers’ decision-making processes and the drivers lying behind their way of thinking. In this study, we examine farmers’ decision-making processes and logic by developing quantitative and qualitative (probabilistic and mental) models that capture the main drivers behind their stated decisions when faced with the impacts of climate change and water scarcity. We then conduct a comparative assessment of future land cover/land-use generated using both models. The results showed that while the models shared several common determinants, they differed in the weight assigned to each. The probabilistic models were able to map mechanistically the ways of the mind, whereas mental processes were more anchored to motives and experiences that shape farmers’ vision of their surroundings. The comparative assessment showed a high similarity between mental and probabilistic models with minor differences pertaining to agricultural and bare lands. The discrepancies tended to be concentrated mostly in parcels where the probabilistic models predicted changing the crop type or quitting without selling. In closure, we argue that the concomitant use of both probabilistic and mental models can provide a more realistic representation of farmers’ decision-making processes and the impact of their decisions on land cover-land use projections when faced with water scarcity in the context of socio-political stressors exacerbated by climate change. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.