Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or 'Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant'

Stuart Basten

doi:10.1080/17441730.2013.836394

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or 'Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant'

Stuart Basten

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0-14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO 'medium' projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.

Original language	British English
Pages (from-to)	322-331
Number of pages	10
Journal	Asian Population Studies
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2013.836394
State	Published - Nov 2013

Keywords

East Asia
fertility
population projections
Singapore

Access to Document

10.1080/17441730.2013.836394

Cite this

@article{7eee669170144d2183f3fd51846e72cf,

title = "Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or 'Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant'",

abstract = "The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0-14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO 'medium' projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.",

keywords = "East Asia, fertility, population projections, Singapore",

author = "Stuart Basten",

note = "Funding Information: The author is grateful to the United Nations Population Division and two anonymous reviewers as well as the local statistical offices covered in this paper. This research was funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, Grant ES/J015032/1.",

year = "2013",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1080/17441730.2013.836394",

language = "British English",

volume = "9",

pages = "322--331",

journal = "Asian Population Studies",

issn = "1744-1730",

publisher = "Routledge",

number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or 'Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant'

AU - Basten, Stuart

N1 - Funding Information: The author is grateful to the United Nations Population Division and two anonymous reviewers as well as the local statistical offices covered in this paper. This research was funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, Grant ES/J015032/1.

PY - 2013/11

Y1 - 2013/11

N2 - The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0-14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO 'medium' projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.

AB - The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0-14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO 'medium' projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.

KW - East Asia

KW - fertility

KW - population projections

KW - Singapore

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888135306&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/17441730.2013.836394

DO - 10.1080/17441730.2013.836394

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84888135306

SN - 1744-1730

VL - 9

SP - 322

EP - 331

JO - Asian Population Studies

JF - Asian Population Studies

IS - 3

ER -

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or 'Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant'

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this