Bayesian network perspectives on sustainable pathways: exploring logistics' influence on multi-dimensional sustainability

This study explores the influence of country-level logistics performance on economic, social, and environmental sustainability within a probabilistic network framework, specifically through Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). The results highlight a multifaceted relationship between logistics and sustainability, with critical findings underscoring logistics' dual role as a driver of economic growth and a determinant of social well-being. The first BBN model achieves an 83.9% predictive accuracy for economic sustainability, demonstrating that logistics performance is a strong positive contributor. However, it reveals significant trade-offs, as poor logistics performance negatively impacts social sustainability by limiting access to essential services and reducing social equity. Economic sustainability emerges as the most critical dimension, emphasizing logistics' pivotal role in shaping a country's development trajectory. The second BBN model connects logistics performance to specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting SDG 9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure) as the most significantly affected. This linkage highlights the importance of efficient logistics in fostering industrial growth, innovation, and economic resilience. The third BBN model, with an 85.5% predictive accuracy, evaluates the relative contributions of the three sustainability dimensions, establishing environmental sustainability as less critical in the broader sustainability context. This finding is attributed to the broad scope of sustainability, encompassing diverse SDGs that might dilute the impact of specific environmental SDGs, such as those related to pollution and carbon emissions. The main contribution of this study lies in its exploration of how country-level logistics performance affects sustainability through BBN models, highlighting the trade-offs and synergies across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The study provides valuable insights for researchers and policymakers, aiding in the comprehensive assessment of logistics' role in shaping a country's sustainable development.