Atmospheric controls on the Terra Nova Bay polynya occurrence in Antarctica

Polynyas, or ice-free regions within the sea ice pack, are a common occurrence around Antarctica. A recurrent and often large polynya is the Terra Nova Bay Polynya (TNBP), located on the western side of the Ross Sea just off Victoria Land. In this study, we investigate the atmospheric conditions leading to the occurrence of the TNBP and its spatial variability, as estimated using satellite-derived ice surface temperature and sea ice concentration data. A cluster analysis revealed that katabatic winds descending the Transantarctic Mountains, account for about 45% of the days when the TNBP exceeded its 2010–2017 mean extent plus one standard deviation. Warmer and more moist air intrusions from lower-latitudes from the Pacific Ocean, which are favoured in the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, play a role in its expansion in the remaining days. This is more frequent in the transition seasons, when such events are more likely to reach Antarctica and contribute to the occurrence and the widening of the polynya. In-situ weather data confirmed the effects of the mid-latitude air intrusions, while sea ice drifts of up to 25 km day−1 cleared the ice offshore and promoted the widening of the polynya starting from the coastal areas. Knowing the atmospheric factors involved in the occurrence of coastal polynyas around Antarctica is essential as it helps in improving their representation and predictability in climate models and hence advance the models’ capabilities in projecting Antarctic sea ice variability. © 2023, The Author(s).