Analysis of CO₂ emissions reduction on the future hydrogen supply chain network for Dubai buses

There is an impetus to decarbonize transportation sector and mitigate climate change. This study examines the effect of adopting hydrogen (H₂) as a fuel for Dubai Buses at different penetration scales on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction. A H₂ supply-chain system dynamics model is developed to conduct life cycle cost and environmental analysis and evaluate the efficacy of different carbon prices and subsidies. Gray, green and mixed H₂ production scenarios were considered. The results show that gray hydrogen reduces 7.1 million tons of CO₂, which is half of green hydrogen buses. Replacing diesel fleet at end of lifetime with mixed hydrogen bus fleet was the optimal approach to promote green hydrogen at pump reaching $4/kg in a decade. This gradual transition reduces 62% of the well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions of the new bus fleet and creates mass for economies of scale as carbon prices and subsidies cannot promote green hydrogen alone.