Advancing Space-Time Simulation of Random Fields: From Storms to Cyclones and Beyond

Simon Michael Papalexiou, Francesco Serinaldi, Emilio Porcu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

32 Scopus citations

Abstract

Realistic stochastic simulation of hydro-environmental fluxes in space and time, such as rainfall, is challenging yet of paramount importance to inform environmental risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. Here, we advance random fields simulation by introducing the concepts of general velocity fields and general anisotropy transformations. This expands the capabilities of the so-called Complete Stochastic Modeling Solution (CoSMoS) framework enabling the simulation of random fields (RF's) preserving: (a) any non-Gaussian marginal distribution, (b) any spatiotemporal correlation structure (STCS), (c) general advection expressed by velocity fields with locally varying speed and direction, and (d) locally varying anisotropy. We also introduce new copula-based STCS's and provide conditions guaranteeing their positive definiteness. To illustrate the potential of CoSMoS, we simulate RF's with complex patterns and motion mimicking rainfall storms moving across an area, spiraling fields resembling weather cyclones, fields converging to (or diverging from) a point, and colliding air masses. The proposed methodology is implemented in the freely available CoSMoS R package.

Original languageBritish English
Article numbere2020WR029466
JournalWater Resources Research
Volume57
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2021

Keywords

  • advection
  • anisotropy
  • cyclones
  • random fields
  • risk analysis
  • storms

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