A re-interpretation of the 'two-child norm' in post-transitional demographic systems: Fertility intentions in Taiwan

Taiwan currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, leading to projections of rapid population ageing and decline. In common with other territories in Pacific Asia, policies designed to support childbearing have recently been introduced. Some optimism for the future success of these policies has been drawn from the fact that the 'ideal' number of children stated in Taiwanese surveys is over two. In this way, Taiwan appears to fit the 'two-child norm' model identified for Europe and North America. Furthermore, this feature has led commentators to state that Taiwan is not in a 'low fertility trap'-where positive feedback mechanisms emanating from the normalisation of small families, slow economic growth and ageing/declining population mean attempts to increase fertility become ever less likely to succeed. Using a recent national representative survey, and arguing that 'intentions' are a more reliable guide to understanding the circumstances of family formation, this paper explores fertility intentions in Taiwan with a special focus on women at parity one and parity two. This will form the first full-length examination of fertility intentions in Taiwan published in English and one of the few studies of Pacific Asia that reports a micro-level analysis. We argue that using intentions should provide a better 'barometer' of attitudes towards childbearing in Taiwan, and that through micro-level analysis, we can better identify the predictors of intentions that could, in turn, provide useful clues both for projections as well as shaping policy responses. While we found some evidence for a 'two-child norm' among childless women, this could be an unrealistic ideal. This is supported by the fact that a majority of women with one child do not intend to have another.