A mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 and control mechanisms in Saudi Arabia

Mostafa Bachar; Mohamed A. Khamsi; Messaoud Bounkhel

doi:10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z

A mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 and control mechanisms in Saudi Arabia

Mostafa Bachar
, Mohamed A. Khamsi
, Messaoud Bounkhel

Mathematics

College of Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

20 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this work, we develop and analyze a nonautonomous mathematical model for the spread of the new corona-virus disease (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia. The model includes eight time-dependent compartments: the dynamics of low-risk S_L and high-risk S_M susceptible individuals; the compartment of exposed individuals E; the compartment of infected individuals (divided into two compartments, namely those of infected undiagnosed individuals I_U and the one consisting of infected diagnosed individuals I_D); the compartment of recovered undiagnosed individuals R_U, that of recovered diagnosed R_D individuals, and the compartment of extinct Ex individuals. We investigate the persistence and the local stability including the reproduction number of the model, taking into account the control measures imposed by the authorities. We perform a parameter estimation over a short period of the total duration of the pandemic based on the COVID-19 epidemiological data, including the number of infected, recovered, and extinct individuals, in different time episodes of the COVID-19 spread.

Original language	British English
Article number	253
Journal	Advances in Difference Equations
Volume	2021
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z
State	Published - Dec 2021

Keywords

Contact tracing
COVID-19EIISSRREx-model
Parameter estimations
Quarantine
Stability
Testing

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z

Cite this

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title = "A mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 and control mechanisms in Saudi Arabia",

abstract = "In this work, we develop and analyze a nonautonomous mathematical model for the spread of the new corona-virus disease (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia. The model includes eight time-dependent compartments: the dynamics of low-risk SL and high-risk SM susceptible individuals; the compartment of exposed individuals E; the compartment of infected individuals (divided into two compartments, namely those of infected undiagnosed individuals IU and the one consisting of infected diagnosed individuals ID); the compartment of recovered undiagnosed individuals RU, that of recovered diagnosed RD individuals, and the compartment of extinct Ex individuals. We investigate the persistence and the local stability including the reproduction number of the model, taking into account the control measures imposed by the authorities. We perform a parameter estimation over a short period of the total duration of the pandemic based on the COVID-19 epidemiological data, including the number of infected, recovered, and extinct individuals, in different time episodes of the COVID-19 spread.",

keywords = "Contact tracing, COVID-19EIISSRREx-model, Parameter estimations, Quarantine, Stability, Testing",

author = "Mostafa Bachar and Khamsi, \{Mohamed A.\} and Messaoud Bounkhel",

note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to extend their sincere appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Saud University for its funding this research group No. (RG-1435-079). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z",

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AU - Khamsi, Mohamed A.

AU - Bounkhel, Messaoud

N1 - Funding Information: The authors would like to extend their sincere appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Saud University for its funding this research group No. (RG-1435-079). Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - In this work, we develop and analyze a nonautonomous mathematical model for the spread of the new corona-virus disease (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia. The model includes eight time-dependent compartments: the dynamics of low-risk SL and high-risk SM susceptible individuals; the compartment of exposed individuals E; the compartment of infected individuals (divided into two compartments, namely those of infected undiagnosed individuals IU and the one consisting of infected diagnosed individuals ID); the compartment of recovered undiagnosed individuals RU, that of recovered diagnosed RD individuals, and the compartment of extinct Ex individuals. We investigate the persistence and the local stability including the reproduction number of the model, taking into account the control measures imposed by the authorities. We perform a parameter estimation over a short period of the total duration of the pandemic based on the COVID-19 epidemiological data, including the number of infected, recovered, and extinct individuals, in different time episodes of the COVID-19 spread.

AB - In this work, we develop and analyze a nonautonomous mathematical model for the spread of the new corona-virus disease (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia. The model includes eight time-dependent compartments: the dynamics of low-risk SL and high-risk SM susceptible individuals; the compartment of exposed individuals E; the compartment of infected individuals (divided into two compartments, namely those of infected undiagnosed individuals IU and the one consisting of infected diagnosed individuals ID); the compartment of recovered undiagnosed individuals RU, that of recovered diagnosed RD individuals, and the compartment of extinct Ex individuals. We investigate the persistence and the local stability including the reproduction number of the model, taking into account the control measures imposed by the authorities. We perform a parameter estimation over a short period of the total duration of the pandemic based on the COVID-19 epidemiological data, including the number of infected, recovered, and extinct individuals, in different time episodes of the COVID-19 spread.

KW - Contact tracing

KW - COVID-19EIISSRREx-model

KW - Parameter estimations

KW - Quarantine

KW - Stability

KW - Testing

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DO - 10.1186/s13662-021-03410-z

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AN - SCOPUS:85105713328

SN - 1687-1839

VL - 2021

JO - Advances in Difference Equations

JF - Advances in Difference Equations

IS - 1

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ER -

A mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 and control mechanisms in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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