A Lifetime Prediction Method for LEDs Considering Real Mission Profiles

Xiaohui Qu, Huai Wang, Xiaoqing Zhan, Frede Blaabjerg, Henry Shu Hung Chung

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    30 Scopus citations


    The light-emitting diode (LED) has become a very promising alternative lighting source with the advantages of longer lifetime and higher efficiency than traditional ones. The lifetime prediction of LEDs is important to guide the LED system designers to fulfill the design specifications and to benchmark the cost-competitiveness of different lighting technologies. However, the existing lifetime data released by LED manufacturers or standard organizations are usually applicable only for some specific temperature and current levels. Significant lifetime discrepancies may be seen in the field operations due to the varying operational and environmental conditions during the entire service time (i.e., mission profiles). To overcome the challenge, this paper proposes an advanced lifetime prediction method, which takes into account the field operation mission profiles and also the statistical properties of the life data available from accelerated degradation testing. The electrical and thermal characteristics of LEDs are measured by a T3Ster system, used for the electrothermal modeling. It also identifies key variables (e.g., heat sink parameters) that can be designed to achieve a specified lifetime and reliability level. Two case studies of an indoor residential lighting and an outdoor street lighting application are presented to demonstrate the prediction procedures and the impact of different mission profiles on the lifetime of LEDs.

    Original languageBritish English
    Article number7786854
    Pages (from-to)8718-8727
    Number of pages10
    JournalIEEE Transactions on Power Electronics
    Issue number11
    StatePublished - Nov 2017


    • lifetime prediction
    • Light-emitting diode (LED) lighting
    • mission profile
    • reliability


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