A framework for technology forecasting and visualization

Wei Lee Woon, Andreas Henschel, Stuart Madnick

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. While using bibliometric techniques in this way is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to be aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. A proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed.

Original languageBritish English
Title of host publication2009 International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, IIT '09
Pages155-159
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2009
Event2009 International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, IIT '09 - Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
Duration: 15 Dec 200917 Dec 2009

Publication series

Name2009 International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, IIT '09

Conference

Conference2009 International Conference on Innovations in Information Technology, IIT '09
Country/TerritoryUnited Arab Emirates
CityAl-Ain
Period15/12/0917/12/09

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